Most writing about the labour shortage 2027 outlook is forecasting, and forecasts about labour markets age badly. There is no need for any here. An unusual number of changes are already written into immigration rules with dates attached, and they are more useful than any projection.
So this is a calendar. If you are planning a move over the next eighteen months, these are the dates that will move under you.
The one to act on: 31 December 2026
The UK’s interim Temporary Shortage List is the only thing keeping the Skilled Worker route open to occupations below degree level, and it sunsets on 31 December 2026 unless amended. Roughly 50 occupation codes at RQF 3 to 5 depend on it: construction trades, engineering, IT technicians, automotive work, logistics, agriculture and some finance and business support roles.
What happens next is genuinely undecided, and the honest position is worth spelling out. The Migration Advisory Committee published a Stage 2 report in July 2026, having assessed Jobs Plans for 46 occupations, and recommended that 28 of them receive provisional access for 18 months, from January 2027 to the end of June 2028. Vehicle body builders and repairers, and vehicle paint technicians, do not proceed.
Those are recommendations, not rules. They have no legal effect until the Government decides which to accept and amends the Immigration Rules. So if you are a tradesperson considering the UK, 2026 is the year with a list you can rely on. See what replaced the UK shortage occupation list.
The calendar
| Date | What changes | Who it affects |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2026 | The UK Temporary Shortage List sunsets unless amended | Anyone sponsored in an occupation below degree level |
| 1 Jan 2027 | The Dutch expat scheme drops from 30% to 27% for the full 60 months, and the salary norm rises from EUR 46,107 to EUR 50,436, or EUR 35,048 to EUR 38,338 for under-30s with a master’s | New arrivals in the Netherlands. Transitional law generally protects people using the scheme from before 2024 |
| Jan 2027 | Singapore’s Employment Pass minimum rises from SGD 5,600 to SGD 6,000, and SGD 6,200 to SGD 6,600 in financial services | New Employment Pass applicants |
| Jan 2027 | Provisional UK Temporary Shortage List access for 28 occupations, for 18 months, if the Government accepts the MAC’s recommendation | Tradespeople and technicians in the 28 occupations |
| 26 Mar 2027 | The UK English requirement for settlement rises from B1 to B2 across most routes | Anyone on a five-year path to UK settlement |
| During 2027 | Japan’s newest Specified Skilled Worker fields, linen supply, logistics warehouse and resource circulation, are expected to begin testing | Workers in warehousing, laundry and recycling |
| Jan 2028 | German doctors holding a Berufserlaubnis must complete the Kenntnisprufung | Internationally trained doctors already practising in Germany under supervision |
| 22 Jul 2028 | UK care worker transitional arrangements end | Care workers sponsored before the route closed |
| End of FY2028 | Japan’s ceiling of 50,000 SSW (i) food service residents runs to here. It is why new applications were suspended on 13 April 2026 | Anyone hoping to enter Japan in restaurant work |
| Each 1 July | Australia indexes the Core Skills Income Threshold. It reached AUD 79,423 in 2026 | Employer-sponsored applicants to Australia |
| Through 2030 | Ireland is on a published roadmap of employment permit threshold rises. The first step, 1 March 2026, was 7.66% | Anyone planning an Irish move over several years |
What the pattern actually says
Read the calendar as a whole and one thing is clear, and it is not the thing the phrase “labour shortage” implies. Shortages are persisting and access is tightening at the same time. Thresholds rise, language requirements rise, tax advantages shrink, and caps bite.
Three consequences worth planning around:
- Earlier is cheaper. Almost every dated change makes the route harder or dearer rather than easier. The Dutch tax position and the UK list are both better in 2026 than in 2027.
- Language is becoming the gate everywhere. The UK moved to B2 for entry in January 2026 and moves to B2 for settlement in March 2027. It is the requirement with the longest lead time and the one people leave latest.
- Caps are the new refusal. Japan’s food service suspension was not a policy reversal; it was a ceiling being reached. Expect more of that, and check whether a route is open rather than whether it exists.
Detail on the two biggest: the Dutch salary thresholds and the UK Skilled Worker route, which moved to B2 in January.
What to do with this
- If your occupation is below degree level and the UK interests you, move in 2026. The list you can rely on expires in December.
- If the Netherlands interests you, start before January 2027 for the 30 per cent rate and the older salary norm.
- Start language study now, whichever destination. It has the longest lead time of anything on this page.
- Check caps as well as rules. A field can be open in law and closed in practice.
- Re-check any figure older than a year. Most of these are revised annually, and the site’s own guides get corrected when they change.
Related: what replaced the UK shortage occupation list and the longer-run workforce forecasts. Browse shortage jobs with visa sponsorship on our board.
Last checked September 2026. Every date here comes from a rule, an announcement or a published recommendation rather than a forecast, but announced dates move and the MAC’s recommendations are not law. Confirm before acting.
