Will Labour Shortages Last Until 2030? What the Data Says

The forecasts agree that labour shortages in rich countries are structural rather than temporary, and run to 2030 at least. They also, read carelessly, lead people to a conclusion that is simply wrong: that the doors are therefore opening.

They are not. Since the forecasts were published the same countries have made their work routes harder. Both things are true at once, and the gap between them is where the opportunity actually sits.

Table of Contents

What the numbers actually say

The most cited work is the McKinsey Global Institute’s Help wanted, published in June 2024, which tracked eight large advanced economies from 2010 to 2023: the United States, Japan, Germany, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Italy.

Finding	Figure
Job vacancies per unemployed person, change by 2023	Up more than fourfold on average
Output lost to vacancies employers could not fill, 2023	GDP 0.5 to 1.5 per cent lower than it need have been
Labour force through 2030, at a stable participation rate	Declining in France, Germany, Italy and Japan
Hours of work that could be automated by 2030	Up to 30 per cent

McKinsey Global Institute, 2024, across eight advanced economies.

The first row is the one worth holding onto. A fourfold rise in vacancies per unemployed person is not a business cycle, it is a population. And the third row explains why: in four of those eight countries the workforce shrinks through 2030 even if nothing else changes, because the people who would have filled those jobs were not born.

And yet the routes got harder

Here is what the same countries did while that forecast was in force:

The United Kingdom closed care worker and senior care worker occupations to new overseas applicants on 22 July 2025, and raised the skills threshold for the Skilled Worker visa to degree level, in the middle of an acknowledged care shortage.
Sweden raised its work permit salary floor to 90 per cent of the national median on 1 June 2026, and removed two occupations from the route entirely.
The Netherlands is cutting its expatriate tax ruling from 30 to 27 per cent from 1 January 2027.
Japan suspended new food service admissions under Specified Skilled Worker on 13 April 2026, having hit the cap for that field.

This is not a contradiction, it is a policy choice. Countries facing genuine shortages are responding by narrowing and targeting rather than opening: fewer occupations, higher salary floors, tighter language and skills tests. The total number of routes is falling while the demand behind the surviving routes rises.

What that means if you are the one moving

It means the general advice of the last decade, apply widely and something will land, has stopped working, and a narrower approach now beats a broader one:

Occupation beats country. Whether a route is open to you is decided by your occupation code far more than by which country you prefer. Start from the shortage lists, not from the map.
A named list beats a general shortage. Every country in the table above has a labour shortage. Only some publish a list that waives a labour market test or lowers a threshold, and that list is the door.
Certification beats experience where the two compete. Recognition of a vocational qualification is the step that moves people from the general queue to the targeted one.
Timing is now a variable. Caps fill, thresholds index upward each year, and transitional rules expire. The bar you clear this year is usually lower than next year’s.

The practical version of all four is in how to use a published sponsor list and the routes that do not need a degree.

Where the shortages are deepest

The sectors have been consistent across every credible forecast and across the shortage lists that countries actually publish:

Sector	Where it shows up on real lists
Healthcare and care	Ireland, Germany, Canada, Australia, Denmark. Nurses and care assistants on almost every list that exists
Skilled trades	Welders, electricians and mechanics across Germany, Canada, Australia and the Nordics
Construction	Australia and Canada, and much of central Europe
Food processing and agriculture	The Nordics, the Netherlands, Poland and the Baltics, often on seasonal routes
Technical IT	Operations and support roles rather than software alone, and often at lower thresholds than headline tech visas

The sectors that appear on official shortage lists, not just in forecasts.

Notice what is missing. Generic office and administrative work appears in no country’s shortage list, however tight the labour market is overall. See countries that need nurses, welding routes and what is open to care workers.

What to do

Find your occupation on a published list in two or three countries. That is the real shortlist, not the countries you like.
Get the qualification recognised in whichever of them has the clearest recognition process.
Move before the threshold does. Salary floors index annually and caps fill.
Ignore the aggregate forecasts when choosing. They tell you the trend is real; they do not tell you which door is open.

Last checked September 2026. The McKinsey Global Institute figures are from its June 2024 report covering 2010 to 2023. Policy positions are current as at September 2026 and change often.

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