{"id":834,"date":"2024-07-30T06:07:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-30T05:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/?p=834"},"modified":"2026-09-14T19:23:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T18:23:25","slug":"more-shortage-job-opportunities-in-future-insights-from-mckinsey-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/more-shortage-job-opportunities-in-future-insights-from-mckinsey-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Labour Shortages Last Until 2030? What the Data Says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecasts agree that <strong>labour shortages<\/strong> in rich countries are structural rather than temporary, and run to <strong>2030<\/strong> at least. They also, read carelessly, lead people to a conclusion that is simply wrong: that the doors are therefore opening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They are not. Since the forecasts were published the same countries have made their work routes harder. Both things are true at once, and the gap between them is where the opportunity actually sits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_88 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/more-shortage-job-opportunities-in-future-insights-from-mckinsey-report\/#What_the_numbers_actually_say\" >What the numbers actually say<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/more-shortage-job-opportunities-in-future-insights-from-mckinsey-report\/#And_yet_the_routes_got_harder\" >And yet the routes got harder<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/more-shortage-job-opportunities-in-future-insights-from-mckinsey-report\/#What_that_means_if_you_are_the_one_moving\" >What that means if you are the one moving<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/more-shortage-job-opportunities-in-future-insights-from-mckinsey-report\/#Where_the_shortages_are_deepest\" >Where the shortages are deepest<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/more-shortage-job-opportunities-in-future-insights-from-mckinsey-report\/#What_to_do\" >What to do<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_the_numbers_actually_say\"><\/span><strong>What the numbers actually say<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most cited work is the McKinsey Global Institute&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/mgi\/our-research\/help-wanted-charting-the-challenge-of-tight-labor-markets-in-advanced-economies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Help wanted<\/a>, published in June 2024, which tracked eight large advanced economies from 2010 to 2023: the United States, Japan, Germany, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Italy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>Finding<\/th><th>Figure<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Job vacancies per unemployed person, change by 2023<\/td><td>Up <strong>more than fourfold<\/strong> on average<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Output lost to vacancies employers could not fill, 2023<\/td><td>GDP <strong>0.5 to 1.5 per cent<\/strong> lower than it need have been<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Labour force through 2030, at a stable participation rate<\/td><td><strong>Declining<\/strong> in France, Germany, Italy and Japan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hours of work that could be automated by 2030<\/td><td>Up to <strong>30 per cent<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption>McKinsey Global Institute, 2024, across eight advanced economies.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first row is the one worth holding onto. A fourfold rise in vacancies per unemployed person is not a business cycle, it is a population. And the third row explains why: in four of those eight countries the workforce shrinks through 2030 even if nothing else changes, because the people who would have filled those jobs were not born.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"And_yet_the_routes_got_harder\"><\/span><strong>And yet the routes got harder<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here is what the same countries did while that forecast was in force:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The United Kingdom<\/strong> closed care worker and senior care worker occupations to new overseas applicants on 22 July 2025, and raised the skills threshold for the Skilled Worker visa to degree level, in the middle of an acknowledged care shortage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sweden<\/strong> raised its work permit salary floor to 90 per cent of the national median on 1 June 2026, and removed two occupations from the route entirely.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The Netherlands<\/strong> is cutting its expatriate tax ruling from 30 to 27 per cent from 1 January 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Japan<\/strong> suspended new food service admissions under Specified Skilled Worker on 13 April 2026, having hit the cap for that field.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is not a contradiction, it is a policy choice. Countries facing genuine shortages are responding by <strong>narrowing and targeting<\/strong> rather than opening: fewer occupations, higher salary floors, tighter language and skills tests. The total number of routes is falling while the demand behind the surviving routes rises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_that_means_if_you_are_the_one_moving\"><\/span><strong>What that means if you are the one moving<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It means the general advice of the last decade, apply widely and something will land, has stopped working, and a narrower approach now beats a broader one:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Occupation beats country.<\/strong> Whether a route is open to you is decided by your occupation code far more than by which country you prefer. Start from the shortage lists, not from the map.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>A named list beats a general shortage.<\/strong> Every country in the table above has a labour shortage. Only some publish a list that waives a labour market test or lowers a threshold, and that list is the door.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Certification beats experience<\/strong> where the two compete. Recognition of a vocational qualification is the step that moves people from the general queue to the targeted one.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Timing is now a variable.<\/strong> Caps fill, thresholds index upward each year, and transitional rules expire. The bar you clear this year is usually lower than next year&#8217;s.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The practical version of all four is in <a href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/uk-skilled-worker-visa-list-of-companies-that-sponsor\/\">how to use a published sponsor list<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/work-visa-without-a-degree-2026\/\">the routes that do not need a degree<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Where_the_shortages_are_deepest\"><\/span><strong>Where the shortages are deepest<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sectors have been consistent across every credible forecast and across the shortage lists that countries actually publish:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>Sector<\/th><th>Where it shows up on real lists<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Healthcare and care<\/strong><\/td><td>Ireland, Germany, Canada, Australia, Denmark. Nurses and care assistants on almost every list that exists<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Skilled trades<\/strong><\/td><td>Welders, electricians and mechanics across Germany, Canada, Australia and the Nordics<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Construction<\/strong><\/td><td>Australia and Canada, and much of central Europe<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Food processing and agriculture<\/strong><\/td><td>The Nordics, the Netherlands, Poland and the Baltics, often on seasonal routes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Technical IT<\/strong><\/td><td>Operations and support roles rather than software alone, and often at lower thresholds than headline tech visas<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption>The sectors that appear on official shortage lists, not just in forecasts.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notice what is missing. Generic office and administrative work appears in no country&#8217;s shortage list, however tight the labour market is overall. See <a href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/countries-that-need-nurses-2026\/\">countries that need nurses<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/welder-jobs-abroad-2026\/\">welding routes<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/care-worker-jobs-abroad-2026\/\">what is open to care workers<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_to_do\"><\/span><strong>What to do<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Find your occupation on a published list<\/strong> in two or three countries. That is the real shortlist, not the countries you like.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Get the qualification recognised<\/strong> in whichever of them has the clearest recognition process.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Move before the threshold does.<\/strong> Salary floors index annually and caps fill.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ignore the aggregate forecasts<\/strong> when choosing. They tell you the trend is real; they do not tell you which door is open.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Related: <a href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/work-visa-for-europe-countries-their-programs\/\">15 European routes compared<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/shortage-occupations-for-the-uk-skilled-worker-visa\/\">the UK shortage occupations<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/jobs\">Browse shortage jobs with visa sponsorship<\/a> on our board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Last checked September 2026. The McKinsey Global Institute figures are from its June 2024 report covering 2010 to 2023. Policy positions are current as at September 2026 and change often.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The forecasts agree that labour shortages in rich countries are structural rather than temporary, and run to 2030 at least. They also, read carelessly, lead&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"2","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"https:\/\/shortagejobs.com\/blog\/more-shortage-job-opportunities-in-future-insights-from-mckinsey-report\/","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-title":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-description":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-title":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-description":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will Labour Shortages Last Until 2030? 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